The book is ready

After 10 years of research the book is complete
Why am I Black -- A search for human origins

https://www.createspace.com/3344869

Basic Premise

To understand the next blog you will first need to watch the next few youtube videos.

September 1st 2007 Prediction
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjxxFpd18fs&NR=1

September 1st 2007 Outcome
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLE_bT_Zn7U&NR=1

September 1st 2007 Analysis
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7kMG4yijVY&feature=related

May favorite saying - Woulda shoulda coulda.... Remember it don't matter. Oughta is the only thing to consider.

So here is the truth of the matter (yes different venue different sport - But I am talking about Physics not about sports)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOSa-sdQswo

9 out of 10... 9 out of 10 hear it loudly. In the next blog I hope I can demonstrate why these events happen, and how chaos is actually what we measure everyday.

Just for fun if you want to get motivated here are two of my favorite videos on this topic

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WO4tIrjBDkk&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Z5OookwOoY&feature=related

Back to the program

After several posts about politics and international economics it is time for me to get back to what I know something about - Day to Day market fluctuations.

It appears from the data that the markets have returned back to normalacy. Although our software does not look beyond maybe 2 days, there is a sense within the model that the market movements are normalizing.

It makes me a bit sad that the markets seem to be returning to normal. The numbers were so good in the fall, but I think in the near future you will see the market climb. Do not take my advice. Talk to a professional. But if I were in the market I would be going long for long term investments. Put off buying garbage for Christmas and purchase some healthy stocks for your kids.

Tomorrow appears to be up. Check back later tomorrow but I am thinking there will be three days of down after tomorrows behavior.

The Great Bush Conspiracy - OK and tell Santa I want new boots

All this talk about China losing money, Russia government destabilization due to oil prices and the collapse of the US stock market - certainly Tony you are not saying... the 'C' word. No I am not saying it was a conscience conspiracy. If you have not read my blog from when I started talking about the market and stump burning then this next piece may be difficult to understand.

Why is a book or a movie popular? It becomes a block buster because it is popular. Nothing more and really nothing less. It is because it is. A very Zen approach to understanding. Let's use some logic. Let's start by saying I am wrong. I have no idea what I am talking about. Let us assume for a moment there is actually a way to measure movie popularity. Many in the industry think there is. When a movie is going to cost $100 million to produce a tremendous amount of vetting goes into the movie premise before it is begun. Focus groups are assembled. The exact correct star and location is identified. Then the movie is produced. If this method is such a science then why is it not repeatable. Consider for a moment any major failure in a movie - Rocky V or Cleopatra something of this nature. Why? Why, with all the preparation did the movie fail. Then take into consideration something like Napoleon Dynamite or the Blair Witch Project. Two movies created on a whim with low budgets. They had cult like followings. Was there a conspiracy? I do not think so.

Here is where it gets difficult. Classical thinking of the world around us suggests that if we place a sphere on a ramp it will roll down the hill. This is mostly true. But I think we miss a critical component to this problem. I am not trying to redefine Physics but maybe I am. At the quantum level there is a constant in which things happen. This constant is called Planks Constant. This constant defines ultimately how small something can be before it can be no smaller. Let us assume that this constant is true for us who measure the object. In other words, by allowing us to measure the constant we actually bias the constant. A sort of relativity not of speed or gravity, but a relativity of size and measures. What if we were the size of a brain neuron. Would we experience the same Planks constant as we do as humans? And if we were a planet, would we experience the same sense of measure as we currently do. In essence if Jupiter had thought, would it see me as a quantum participant on earth? Tony, Tony, Tony.... Jupiter does not think.... Good point, but systems are divisible and living systems do respond.

So let's go back to the stumps. Assume for a minute that I have a large number of very small sticks surrounding the stump. This sticks are pieces of limbs that have fallen from the limbs that I had burned. How long and how much energy do I expend placing these items on the fire. As opposed how long does it take me to place a limb of equal mass on the fire. Time and energy are not separable from the mass because there must be coherent placement of the sticks in order to exert flame on the stump. Both the small sticks and limbs are critical to the burning of the stump at least in the beginning because the fire has not yet begun. And the critical piece to the puzzle is actually the amassing of the little sticks in the right time interval to start the fire. Once the fire is going, adding or subtracting large logs will determine the fire to some degree. But a many small sticks can continue to do the same thing.

So how does this apply to the crisis. For many years the US amassed many small sticks. The US did not intentionally sell too many T-bonds to the Chinese. The US did not with intention define the price of oil based on the dollar. It was the repetitive purchase of oil with dollars that allowed others to accept the de facto standard. Russia will argue in russiatoday.com that nationalization of the oil fields was critical to control monopolistic behavior of individuals. What they did was create an even bigger log to burn. This fire does not effect the one individual but rather the entire country now. China spent tremendous energy keeping its currency low to boost foreign trade. Because of this behavior China held a large number of US dollars.

So what was it that Bush did that allowed the financial storm to ensue. NOTHING. Yes there was little to no effort on the US to stop the behavior. Bush and Bernanke effectively allowed the invisible hand of capitalism to guide the market.

OK once again Tony you are wrong. There was a concerted plan to make all this happen. Think about this statement. The next thing you are going to tell me is that is because of these concerted efforts that people around the world hate us. Here is where you need only read russiatoday.com for a moment. Russia works diligently in their own interest. Their actions are presented in the best interest of the world, but never are their actions in opposition to the Russian position. Consider that, everything the US does is in the interest of the US. Everything that Russia does is in the interest of the rest of the world and not to just the benefit of Russia. How egalitarian of them.

So how is this for an answer instead. As humans we measure the macro level of the economies and have only the power to manipulate the largest of conditions. Whereas the real functions of the system occur at the quantum level. In other words, the market is driven because a mother buys a pet rock for a popular kid at school. That kid happens to think it is cool and takes it to school, in which all the kids start getting the pet rock. Lo and behold the event because a media showcase and the pet rock becomes a national sensation. This is scary to many people to believe. This means things are beyond control. Try as we might we may at best bias conditions but we do not control them. If we do not control them then we can only predict them to a limited degree. This knowledge goes back to even the Bible. Consider the Jews in Egypt. Why were they freed? Because the king heard of the prophecy, he acted by having first born sons killed. That policy in turn resulted in Moses being reared as part of the Pharaoh court. So the very policy that was implemented to control the liberation of the Jews actually created the situation that allowed the Jews to be liberated. It is a Bible story but I think we all get the point.

Russia's Role in the Bush Legacy?

Roughly a month ago I mentioned that I thought Bush, Bernanke et al would in the future be seen as briliant financial minds. I did not want to finish my comments until I had done a bit more research. I am more convinced of my position today than I was when I made the statement. Two months ago I began my first lessons in the Russian Language. There is a great Internet site livemocha.com that allows a user to not only study a language but interface with native speakers in the country of question. So in the last several months I have not only begun to learn the language, but I have had the chance to understand the minds and thoughts of Russians from across the Russia Federation. I will take the time to state here, the individuals I have met have by enlarge been a joy to speak with.

In addition to speaking to Russian nationals, I took time each day to read articles from russiatoday.com. It is a great source of information. I encourage the reader to review the articles on the site. With that said let me say, my work experience does include time working in the topic of Information Warfare. When I read the articles on the Russiatoday.com site I get a very different image of Russia than what the articles say. When I combine the information in the articles with the information I collected from Russian Nationals, I am convinced Bush will be judged well in the future.

Enough beating around the Bush, you say. OK so here are the facts. Roughly 2 years ago it was well known that China was the single largest holder of US Treasury Bonds. It was even speculated by some that China could use these bonds to destablize the US economy. As we move forward from 2 years back we saw the US dollar begin to loose tremendous value. As the dollar lost value, oil prices soared. China did begin to liquidate their Treasury holdings as the dollar fell. They converted those holdings into ownership of Sub prime mortgages and Investment firms within the US. The more the dollar fell the more the price of oil climbed. The news media without question accepted the "Green" theory that world oil demand was outpacing world oil production. Uninformed speculators drove the oil prices higher and the dollar continued to fall. China diversified their trillion dollar holdings into more mortgages and more US investments. Meanwhile Russia began to fill their financial coffers with profits. At some point it appears the US was defeated economically by these powers. Here comes the trick. China was one of (if not the) largest loosers in the sub prime failure. The properties did not disappear, but rather the paper representations of money disappeared as did the US dollars held by China. The stock market plunged and so did the paper money representations held by the Chinese.

But what about Russia? Under the peaking oil prices, the Russian government re-nationalized much of the Russian Oil production. For several months the Russian government benefited from $100+ per barrel oil. So much was the benefit, that the government put over 500 billion USD equivalent into reserves. As the market fell and people ran to the security of T-bonds the dollar re-emerged in strength. Today oil prices hit $44 per barrel. In efforts to stablize the Ruble, Russia has spent more than 50 percent of the reserve funds. Even after spending 50 percent of the reserves the Ruble has lost tremendous value against the dollar and Euro in the last 6 months.

Now go read the articles in Russiatoday.com. Are Americans hurting? Yes, but there is one final piece in this puzzle. Russian people not living in Moscow make a fraction compared to American workers. I spoke with software developer in Moscow. In our conversation we realized his salary in the high tech industry was roughly the same as a farm laborer in the US. Now get this, an iphone in Russia is three times the price as an iphone in America. The ability to endure unemployment and weak economies is clearly favored by Americans.

Ultimately, yes the US economy is not great. HOWEVER, Russia, China and the middle east have lost volumes more. Where did they lose it? Back to the people that had paid them for product.

I will attempt to speak more to this tomorrow, while I watch Football.

The Next Hundred Years

I have not blogged about the market in over a week. In market time frame that is for ever. The outcomes have really been unremarkable. We have been abstaining from short selling for the last few days. But then again we have been abstaining from long buying as well.

Today I do not want to really talk about where the market is going but rather where it has been and how we will judge this time from the future. Yesterday I spent the morning at my church cleaning fallen trees from our outdoor areas. We had had a terrible storm last weekend and 4 trees had fallen in the church areas. With me working yesterday was a gentleman my fathers age. He is 84 years old and he and I spoke about what he had seen in his life. War II, Korea, Aircraft that he had worked on just everything. Eventually we talked about the Great Depression. He and I laughed at what people today are calling a potential depression. Our economic situation is no where close to the condition that Americans saw in the 1930's.

I think the most shocking part of this matter will be my take on why this depression is no where the depression of those times. It is my belief that 100 years from now George Bush, Ben Bernanke and others will be seen as some of the greatest Financial Minds of all time. How can this be? Well how could it be that I have called the market so correctly through the last month. Macro understanding of the micro-workings can only be measured after the completion of the micro processes. I think the steps taken by Bernanke et al, were genius. I will explain more later.

Climb is Over?

Whew, If you spent anytime today watching the market, after 10am you were probably getting your email ready to send to me laughing for going long yesterday afternoon. Good thing you didn't hit that send button before 1550 :). Yes technically the index was up today 41 points. Here is the problem, it was a select market up. Under our paradigm we did very well. The down market allowed us to exit many of our short positions, and the recovery in the afternoon allowed the limited number of recent longs to exit in a one day purchase.

Where does it go from here? If I said up I would have a 50 / 50 chance. The overriding guidance from our indicators suggest - I am sorry to say - Continued down...

Unlike yesterday, I am unwilling to commit to a direction tomorrow. Here is my suggestion. Watch the Asian and European markets. Ahhhh hate to tell ya. We don't lead them, we follow them, you just have to know how to read them. Oh BTW that is why at 1500 today we were thinking, yep we were right it is going to be up.