The election

I mentioned earlier that stock markets are like elections. Think about this, if you released a ball on a ramp 10 times. How many times would it roll down the ramp? You would suspect 10 times. Why is that? Gravity is a force that is deterministic. We won't go into the concept of what gravity is. We will just agree for now that it is a deterministic classical force that drives our perception of the world around us. Now if you flip a coin 10 times, how many times will it come up heads. You really don't know, but what we do know is that if we flip it thousands of times, then it will come up heads 50% of the time. Why is this? The same forces of gravity and motion apply to the coin. Should we not be able to determine the final result. In the greatest sense perhaps we should. For instance, if we know the height, the spin rate and so forth we should be able with some certainity determine the outcome of the coin.

So if coin flipping in essence can be deterministic why are elections so commonly 50/50 between democrats and republicans. It goes back to the discussion on infinite guesses. In the case of a presidential election here are the conditions that we have to consider. There are 400 million people in America. Rougly 100 million can vote. Of that less than 50 million will exercise that right to vote. With 50 million people with 50 million unique life experiences the voting process tends to be random behavior at best. Given two primary choices the vote results in a 50 50 split. This behavior is much like a coin flip.

There is no rationale that explains close elections other than it is a random event in which reality there is no prevailing force to drive voters. When a President wins an election with 1 or 2 percent of the popular vote, all you really know is that neither canidate interested the people. In these cases there is no prevailing force to drive the election. There may be a prevailing component for an individual but not for the nation. In the case of Ronald Reagan there was some prevailing logic that transcendented the nation.

Prove it Tony you say.... That will have to wait as I discuss stocks more.